Decline of US and rise of China - should not mean war

[Nefarious]

There has been talk by some of the 'red threat' of China, however a recent TIMES article actually took a rational view of such things, and this is China's commentary on this in their own media:

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200701/24/eng20070124_344352.html

American view on China changing quietly
24th January 2007

A feature article in US-based Time magazine published on January 11 assessed the rise of China, calling it the "dawn of a new dynasty" and "the China century". It reviewed China's rapid development in recent years: from investment in Africa to diplomatic activities in Latin America, from energy needs to geographical influence, from domestic challenges to diplomatic achievements, and from democracy and human rights to sovereignty and territory. It ended by concluding that "China's rise to global prominence ­doesn't have to lead to the sort of horror that accompanied the emerging power of Germany or Japan. ­There need be no wars between China and the US, no catastrophes, no economic competition that gets out of hand. But in this century the relative power of the US is going to decline, and that of China is going to rise. That cake was baked long ago."

This article one of the most comprehensive, deep and balanced analyses of China to come from mainstream US media so far; it reflects a change in American society's view of China, and is largely in line with Washington's current China policy.

The idea of the "China century" is nothing new. Talk of the "China century" in the West began as early as the 1980s, when it was predicted the 21st century would belong to Asia and specifically, China. It was an expectation that stemmed from a strategic awareness in western nations. In the 1990s, however, theories about China's collapse and watered-down statistics popped up across the US, reflecting doubt about the continuous, rapid development of the nation. When China overcame one difficulty after another and, backed by solid statistics, proved to the world that "robust growth" was no longer in the future, that it was happening now and would continue to happen, Americans refused to look squarely at the facts and started trumpeting the "China threat" theory, which constituted, among other things, a military, environmental and energy threat.

It should be noted that since the end of 2004 a new wave of concern about China has swept across the US, in which sentimental arguments have gradually given way to objective, practical reports and analysis. The "China threat" rhetoric has been dropped and "China's responsibility" is now more widely heard. This is progress. If the Newsweek panorama report on China in early 2005 was regarded as a wind vane, then the recent Time article is a temporary summary of America's concerns about China. It is a mixture of complex emotions: surprise at China's fast growth that has gone well beyond American expectations; helplessness, as it is bogged down in the Middle East and unable to cope with China's development; and anxiety over possible challenges a stronger China might pose. The US has observed changes in China's domestic and foreign affairs in recent years and has adjusted its attitude to face the dawn of the China century. In fact, these sentiments are already present in current strategic thinking, and are represented by US calls for China to be a "responsible shareholder" and the "hedge" theory.

This quiet change in the US' attitude towards China should be affirmed. Unlike past judgments which were simple, sentimental and tried to demonize China, the Time article indicates that US politicians, academics and journalists have become more objective and rational in their way of looking at China, which is critical for the development of sound, stable Sino-US relations. However, reading between the lines, we can see the US is still constrained by a deep-rooted US-centric mentality. Ideologically it has not moved away from democracy and peace or "historic fatalism" when it comes to the rise and fall of powers. As a result, it has failed to subscribe to the idea of constructive cooperation for mutual benefit and clung to traditional "power" thinking in which the western world will "manage" China's rise together. It will probably take time for America to really understand China.

The author, Yuan Peng, is vice director of the Institute of American Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations; translated by People's Daily _.

I think this is a nicely written article - I think China is interested in working for mutual benefit. However, it may be more egalitarian towards other countries than those that the US has favoured - it will not discriminate in the same way the West has done to protect it's interests. With the rising influence of China more countries, including ones that have been kept down economically by prevailing powers, will have a chance to attain a better quality of life for their citizens.

[mundheim]

^^^^^

How pathetic that you would quote a propagandistic editorial in a Communist Chinese publication with the hackneyed name "People's Daily" for the fictional propositions that the United States is "in decline" and that "China is interested in working for mutual benefit."

The United States is by far the most militarily and economically powerful country in the world today and in the history of the world -- ever. The American economy has experienced sustained growth with low inflation, low unemployment and low interest rates during a period in which the U.S. has expended hundreds of billions of dollars conducting two foreign wars -- and the most recent projection is that the American budget deficit will go into surplus by 2012.

Even more pathetic is your delusion that China "it will not discriminate in the same way the West has done to protect it's interests." China remains an oppressive dictatorship with no respect for human rights or civil liberties. China's foreign policy is one of aggression and forcible acquisition -- true imperialism -- as evidenced by China's invasion and takeover of Tibet and repeatedly expressed intention to invade and take over Taiwan.

The United States' "concern" about China is directly related to China’s aggressive military and imperialistic ambitions.

The only fact in the propaganda you quote is that China has indeed experienced marked economic growth during the last two decades or so -- which growth is attributable to China's adoption of American-style capitalism.

Please . . .

[Nefarious]

Well you will note that they talk about a relative decline in US power - they are not saying that the US will become powerless just that they won't necessarily remain in the top dog position but be one of a group of top dogs, China being one of them. This is a natural occurence in the world, power ebbs and flows. The US holds a very strong position right now, but history tells us that top dog positions change over time. Yes, China has taken itself to war and there is the Tibet issue, but then they are no different from the US in that regard.

However, I would say that overall Chinese are a pretty peaceful, respectful, secular and logical group of people. While you will find war in this countrys history, much the same as any other countrys background, you will also find evidence that they also respectfully traded with many countries and are very generous people. China retreated from the world at large for a very long time, now they are poking their heads out again. This is not necessarily a negative thing.

In terms of development of missiles that can take out satellites, that just shows how smart they are. They have watched the numerous wars that have been waged in the last century, they know that rhetoric could be amped up against them as it has been for other countries - so they have come up with a very credible means to discourage such behaviour. Ergo, you try to strike against us we will take out your satellites and this will weaken you tactically. There is no way the US wants anyone taking out their satellites so they are less likely to try and take China on.

[mundheim]

[Nefarious]